How to Profit from a Property Downturn

How to Profit from a Property Downturn

For most people, a house is the most expensive purchase they will make in their lifetime and many who purchased in the last two years have found that the resale value of their home is less than what they paid for it. Nobody likes to lose money on something they have paid a lot of money for and for this reason, sales have dwindled. For all but a few people, however, holding on to your house in a downturn for fear of making a loss does not make sense. In particular, anybody who is selling to transfer to another town or selling to buy a bigger house can use the downturn to advantage. Take, for example, John and Mary who bought a three bedroom house two years ago for $300,000. Their family is expanding and they would like to buy a four bedroom house with two bathrooms. Based on recent sales in their street, they feel their house is worth about 20% less than what they paid for it, that is about $240,000. John is reluctant to sell the house at a loss of $60,000 however Mary, who is adamant that the family needs a bigger house, has a look at what is available. She finds the perfect house. Two years ago, the vendors Tim and Susan had purchased the house for $500,000 but now, because they are moving out of the area, they are selling for $400,000; 20% less than what they paid. Tim and Susan are not concerned about selling so low because they know they can buy a similar house for around the same price. John and Mary are delighted to find that although they might lose $60,000 on their existing house, they will save $100,000 on their new house. That’s how to profit from a downturn.

The Best Time to Buy Property

The Best Time to Buy Property

Everyone knows the best time to buy property is when the market has reached its lowest point. The trouble is, it’s not obvious when that point is until it has well and truly been and gone. First home buyers, migrants and investors in particular have been waiting on the sidelines for months now for the right time to come. While we now have falling interest rates again, the economic background is very different than it was. Net migration is low, lenders have tightened their lending policies, the economy is slowing and we are just starting to see the beginnings of what is expected to be a huge increase in the level of unemployment. So is now the right time to buy? Whether you take the plunge and buy now or wait until the market stabilises depends on three critical factors:

  • How long you intend to own the property for
  • Your ability to borrow and to maintain the repayments on money borrowed
  • Being able to buy the right property in the right location from a motivated seller

Property prices rise over the medium and long term, and ten years from now, current property prices will seem cheap even if they continue to fall in the short term. For first home buyers and investors with large mortgages, the key risk will be keeping up with mortgage repayments until such time as the market recovers. Falling interest rates will be helpful but unemployment is expected to rapidly increase. Before you take up a mortgage, consider the security of your job as you don’t want to be forced to sell. If you are an investor, rising unemployment may mean tenants aren’t able to make rent payments. There may be downward pressure on rents due to lack of demand and unsold properties being tenanted. Although the property market may not be quite at the bottom of the cycle, purchasers with a medium or long term view should not be concerned, providing they buy the right property at a good price, and have confidence that they can obtain funding and meet repayments on money borrowed.

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